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2005 election turns into a cliff-hanger
Paul East QC is retained by Bell Gully to advise on public law issues. Here, he summarises the issues that have arisen during 2005 election campaign.
The election campaign is about to enter its final week and it would be a brave person who claimed to know the make up of the next Government.
For my money, a Labour/Green Government still looks the most likely outcome; however, this is an election like none we have seen before.
First, there has been substantial volatility in the polling results over the last few weeks, with the lead swapping four times in the last four polls.
Second, we have seen a bidding contest break out between the two main parties. Third, we have seen the smaller parties fall by the wayside as media attention has concentrated on Labour and National.
Taking the last point first. In every other MMP election we have seen several of the smaller parties lift their public support as the campaign has progressed.
Some have enjoyed a dramatic increase, like United Future at the last election and
The present campaign has seen those parties struggling to get the attention of the voter as National and Labour have slugged it out.
The two major parties
Over the next week, we will find out if National or Labour has held back a king hit for the final days of the campaign.
National started the campaign well with promises of tax cuts, the details to follow, against a Labour party that appeared to have few fresh ideas.
Then Labour was back on top with an extremely generous student loan policy and stumbles from National on various policy fronts such as forestry and the nuclear issue.
Then last weekend National surged ahead by a substantial margin largely driven by hit-pocket politics - detailed tax reductions of a substantial nature for most working New Zealanders.
Now the latest poll has Labour in front again. Little wonder the smaller parties can't get a look in when the major parties are stealing the headlines.
Given the prosperity of the last six years, National shouldn't have a chance at this election particularly starting from such a low base when the party was decimated in 2002.
At the hit-pocket level, it should all be working well for Labour. Unemployment is at an all time low, economic growth has been sound, polls show that most New Zealanders think the country is on the right track and, until the last few months, the government has had an air of unity and capability.
National has got right back in the race by skilfully picking the right issues - tax cuts, Maori/treaty issues and appealing to mainstream values. Combine this with extremely effective advertising and the best qualified and most able list of candidates, and National has started to look like winners.
The strength of the two main parties has seen their support base climb to pre-MMP levels when elections were always a two-horse race. It is unprecedented in an MMP environment for both major parties to hold 80-90% of voter support.
While National must be delighted with its resurgence in the polls, it faces a major dilemma. No party since the 1951 election has won more than 50% of the vote. That election was unique in that it was called to resolve the long running strike on the waterfront which was crippling
When the votes are counted, National will need a coalition partner and there are precious few options available. By contrast, Labour has certain support from the Greens and
Much of what has happened was predictable and National must be asking itself some hard questions as to why it finds itself in this position.
In particular, it seems extremely short sighted not to have made some electoral accommodation with Act so that its votes aren’t lost to the centre right if, as looks likely, it fails to gain an electorate seat.
Similarly National has done little if anything to overcome the bitter division that arose between New Zealand First and the Shipley National Government. Anger and resentment are luxuries you cannot afford if you want to build bridges to form a coalition government. Holding out the hand of friendship in the dying days of an election campaign will look like an act of desperation.
If there is any trend in the polls, it is that we have entered the world of three-tier politics. The two major parties are dominant in a manner not seen since the days before MMP. At the second level,
However, although these parties lack widespread support, they may still provide the tipping point for a coalition government. After all, who can forget the first term of an MMP government when National was forced to rely on the vote of Alamain Kopu, a refugee from the Alliance Party, in order to continue in office until the next election.
The second tier
Of the smaller parties, only the Greens have held their support since the start of the campaign. This is not surprising given that in most western countries there is always 5-8% of the voters who consider the future of the planet as the most important issue facing the electorate.
The Greens are helped by the fact that a vote for the Greens poses no risk for those on the left as it is clear that the Greens will support a Labour Government. It is only if the Greens should fall to 3 or 4% that green votes on the left will switch to Labour for fear their vote will be lost and a centre-right government will be elected.
On the other hand, New Zealand First is in all sorts of trouble. The old story of "we'll keep both major parties honest and let you know after the election who will govern
Winston's latest strategy - declaring he will not form part of a coalition government but keep the government honest from the cross benches - is unlikely to see a resurgence in support for the party.
New Zealand First is in trouble on two other fronts. Its age-old favourite policies of immigration and the treaty have been usurped by National - why vote for a pale imitation when you can have the real thing?
In Tauranga, the National Party has put up a strong local candidate for the first time in years. Well known and popular, he is giving Winston a real run for his money. Whether the annihilation of New Zealand First is in National's best long-term interest appears to have escaped the attention of the National Party strategists.
Despite the embarrassment of pulling the rug from under a well known and popular candidate, if New Zealand First is still hovering below 5% it may be in National’s best interest to swallow its pride and ask its supporters to vote for Winston in Tauranga.
The third group
It is extremely difficult to predict how the Maori Party will fare on September 17th. Polling is notoriously unreliable in the Maori seats and early issues like the seabed and foreshore appear to be on the wane.
Early in the campaign, the Maori Party was willing to consider a coalition with National after the election but that has now changed. While National's position on Maori issues always made such a relationship highly unlikely, it also meant the prospect of such a deal was costing the Maori Party support. Like New Zealand First, lack of clarity about its post election plans was turning off the voter.
United Future has found "common sense and the family" have been crowded out by the clamouring of other parties. Without a friendly worm in the televised debates and with a three-year history of supporting Labour, the odds were always stacked against the party.
An unlikely combination of circumstances lead to a surprising result at the last election and with no such factors present this time around they can expect to elect no more than two or three members. Most of its supporters last time around were National voters. They now see National with a realistic chance of winning and have switched support.
Faced with losing even more support because of uncertainty over who they will support after the election, United has opted to signal that National is the party this time around.
Polling suggests
Along with New Zealand First, Act is the only other party facing the prospect of not retaining any members at the next Parliament. It now appears certain that the 5% threshold is beyond them.
Unless National is prepared to offer a deal in Epsom, they are doomed. Common sense says the National Party should throw its support behind Act in Epsom to ensure their votes aren’t wasted. But common sense and party politics are often two very separate beasts and there are some very entrenched positions to overcome.
Failing such a deal, it would be an extreme example of sophisticated voting if the Epsom electorate, keen to get a National Government, abandoned their present MP and voted for
So what is the likely outcome?
A week is a long time in politics, and even longer if it is the end of an election campaign.
Failing last minute bombshells or blunders, expect National to finish just ahead of Labour but still short of the 60 seats (or 61-62 seats with Jim Anderton and the Maori Party causing an overhang) required to form a government.
With New Zealand First and United Future support, they have a chance of taking office but more likely is Labour/Green/Jim Anderton/Maori Party just skating over the 60-seat requirement.
The only certain thing is that this is a cliff-hanger.
Advice and information
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Disclaimer
This publication is necessarily brief and general in nature. You should seek professional advice before taking any action in relation to the matters dealt with in this publication.
